Breaking down Indian economy’s unending energy
monthly EM Tracker showed. The tracker, which assesses economic activity across 10 EMs based on seven high-frequency indicators, gave India a record-high score of 80.5 out of 100 in December 2023. The rank and score are provisional since some countries are yet to release full data.
But among the indicators where all the data is available, India’s robust manufacturing activity growth and upward stock movement stole the show. (India was also No. 1 on GDP, but that data is only available till the September quarter for all economies.) Strong trends were also visible in another tracker run by Mint, which focuses solely on the progress of domestic macroeconomic numbers.
Just four out of the 16 indicators it tracks were below their five-year average trends last month—a slight improvement since November and a sharp uptick since mid-2023. Simply put, this means most indicators are in better shape than their recent trends. The two trackers together give a comprehensive monthly report card on how India’s economy behaved with respect to its own recent trajectory, and vis-a-vis peer economies.
The economic position comes as good news for the central government as it prepares the last Union budget of its second term, to be presented on Thursday. However, subdued exports growth, especially in labour-intensive sectors (a proxy for job trends), and a weakness in wholesale passenger car sales may dampen the optimism. One of the indicators where India topped among EMs last month was equity market capitalization, which expanded by a record 10.4%.
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