BTC price won't hit $100K before 2024 halving — Bitcoin investment exec
Bitcoin (BTC) will only hit six figures after its 2024 block subsidy halving, not before, Bitcoin investor and author Jesse Myers believes.
In an X post on Aug. 15, Myers, who is co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, said that the market will only “price in” the halving post factum.
Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles are back in focus as the next halving event looms in the first half of next year.
Miners will see the reward earned per block of transactions drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, while the corresponding drop in emission and its impact on supply and demand is getting analysts excited.
Four Myers, however, markets will only bear out those implications after the halving has happened.
“Bitcoin won't surge to $100k before the next halving,” he summarized.
Justification comes in the form of criticism of market intuition. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF), which states that markets always reflect the true state of a given asset, is “wrong,” Myers claims.
“Instead, the market will price-in the changed reality over the 12-18 months post-halving,” he added.
Current analysis shows that the year before a halving event has seen similar BTC price performance on each occasion.
Candle 4 happens to represent the year of the #BTC HalvingAnd historically, $BTC tends to retrace early on in a new Candle 4But after this initial retrace, BTC then recovers and rallies significantly without looking back#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/5blKD1E8n7
That position contrasts with some recent forecasts for how BTC price action will evolve in the coming months and beyond.
Related: Bitcoin risks 15% dip by October, but $100K is due in 2026 — Analysis
Some believe that a breakout is around the corner, with October currently a popular
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