Budget 2024: FY25 fiscal deficit likely to be estimated at 5.5% of GDP, say economists

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₹80,000 crore in current fiscal, while non tax revenue is also expected to exceed budget estimates by ₹50,000 crore. Similarly, expenditure may also exceed budget estimates by around ₹60,000 crore, economists said. Also Read: Cut deficit to 5.4% in FY25: Ind body to govt Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India believes gross tax revenue at 11.6% of GDP in FY24 is likely to be a 16 year high.

In FY25, he expects gross tax revenue to be at the highest ever in the last 2 decades. “We believe the fiscal deficit in absolute terms could decline in FY24 but as a % of GDP it could be at 5.9% and likely to be set at 5.5% in FY25 Interim Budget. The final budget to be presented in July could set it at a lower level of 5.3%-5.4% depending on GDP numbers that will be released in May 2024," Ghosh said.

He believes net market borrowing of the Centre in FY25 will be around ₹11.7 lakh crore and with repayments of ₹3.6 lakh crore, gross borrowing is expected at ₹15.3 lakh crore. However, the government will adjust in switches and this could adjust gross borrowings lower than ₹15 lakh crore. Even net issuance of T-Bills to the tune of ₹50,000 crore is expected, he added.

(Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights! Click here!) Sonal Badhan, Economist at Bank of Baroda also expects the centre to achieve its fiscal deficit target of 5.9% in FY24, with risks titled to the upside. These risks emerge from: lower than anticipated nominal GDP growth, and higher than budgeted expenditure. From these levels, she expects the government to reduce the deficit target by 50 bps in FY25BE, thus targeting a 5.4-5.5% range in the