Budget 2024 may be balanced; NDA's win in 2024 may not trigger any sharp rally, says Ashutosh Tiwari of Equirus

livemint.com:

Ashutosh Tiwari, Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities at Equirus believes Budget 2024 may be balanced, along with growth orientation, and it will also include populist measures with a focus on rural and lower strata of society which has been under distress post Covid. In an interview with Mint, he says NDA's win in the 2024 General Election will not trigger any sharp rally in the market.

However, a loss can cause an immediate negative reaction in the markets. Edited excerpts: With the central election in 2024 around, the Budget is likely to be balanced next year, along with growth orientation, we believe it will also include populist measures with a focus on rural and lower strata of society which has been under distress post-Covid.

Women welfare schemes like Ladli Behna in MP are considered to be one of the major reasons behind big wins of the BJP in recent state elections and therefore it is quite likely that the government might announce more women welfare-related central schemes in the 2024 Budget. During May-Jun as well as the recent festive season, we have seen some signs of recovery in rural which is evident from improvement in two-wheeler (2Ws) retails which grew nearly 20 per cent year-on-year (YoY) during the festive period.

Moderating inflation also augurs well for rural recovery as it leaves more in hand for consumers to spend on discretionary items. Still, rural benefit schemes will be on top of the government’s agenda during the budget.