Budget 2024: Modest tax revenue target likely for FY25

budget a modest 9-11% increase in net tax revenue receipts in FY25 over the budget estimate for the current year in the February 1 interim budget.
In absolute terms, the net tax revenue of the Centre is expected to be pegged at ₹25-26 lakh crore.

In the current fiscal, the Centre has budgeted ₹23.3 lakh crore net tax revenue.

The revised estimate for net tax revenue receipt in the current fiscal year, after devolution to states, will be at about the same level as the budget estimate, considering the likely shortfall in excise duty collections, people aware of the details told ET. The excise duty target for next fiscal is likely to be at ₹3 lakh crore. In the current fiscal year, excise duty collections are expected to fall short by ₹45,000 crore from the budgeted target of ₹3.39 lakh crore.

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«The target for net revenue receipt for the next fiscal year will be modest, ranging between 9-11%,» a senior official told ET, adding that this is also on account of the already high base. Tax receipts have exceeded revised estimates in the last two years.
The government has budgeted its gross tax revenue at ₹33.6 lakh crore for FY24. Devolution to the states from the Centre's tax revenue is estimated to be ₹10.2 lakh crore in FY24.

After devolution, the Centre's net tax receipt is expected to be at ₹23.30 lakh crore, which is 11.7% higher than the revised estimate in FY23.
Independent assessments estimate a sharper rise in taxes.