



Budget should support growth with fiscal consolidation
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. India’s real and nominal GDP growth rates for 2025-26 are estimated at 7.4% and 8.0%, respectively, according to the National Statistics Office’s first advance estimates. In 2026-27, with prospects of higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation, we may expect real and nominal GDP growth rates at close to 6.5% and 9.5%, respectively.
These appear to be some basic numbers with which budget makers will have to work with. The nominal GDP magnitude for 2025-26 is estimated at ₹357.14 lakh crore. Applying a nominal growth of 9.5% would provide a figure of ₹391.1 lakh crore for 2026-27.
For the period April to November 2025-26, the Centre’s gross tax revenues (GTR) have shown a growth of only 3.3% vis-à-vis the budgeted full-year growth of 10.8%, according to the Controller General of Accounts data. In the remaining four months, the GTR growth may improve, but it would still fall short of the budgeted growth. The revenue impact of the recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms was not included in the 2025-26 budget estimates.
Any shortfall in the GTR may be counterbalanced partially by the two newly introduced measures relating to the central excise tax on tobacco and tobacco products and the Health Security and National Security Cess. There would also be some revenue cushion from the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) higher dividends. It may be possible to meet the budgeted fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP with some cuts in revenue expenditures, which have grown only by 1.8% during the first eight months of 2025-26.
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