Donald Trump's effort to march to the Republican presidential nomination faces perhaps its greatest challenge on Tuesday when voters in New Hampshire hold the first-in-the-nation primary. The former president enters the contest emboldened by his record-setting performance in last week's Iowa caucuses. But New Hampshire has a more moderate political tradition and primary rules that allow unaffiliated voters to participate in the race. Trump-backed MAGA candidates have struggled here in recent years.
Nikki Haley is hoping to capitalise on those vulnerabilities. The former UN ambassador is the only candidate left in the GOP primary aiming to defeat Trump outright. After a disappointing finish in Iowa, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is effectively surrendering new Hampshire and focusing on South Carolina's Feb. 24 primary.
A Haley victory would usher in a more competitive phase of a primary that Trump has so far dominated. A Trump win, however, could create a sense of inevitability around the prospect that he could become the GOP nominee for the third consecutive time.
Don't forget that Democrats have a primary, too. President Joe Biden is not on the ballot, having made South Carolina the first formal stop on the Democratic primary calendar. But New Hampshire is sticking to tradition and hosting its own Democratic primary anyway.
Here's what we're watching for on Tuesday:
CAN TRUMP BE STOPPED? If Trump's rivals can't beat him in New Hampshire, they may not be able to stop him anywhere else.
Tuesday's election has essentially become a one-on-one fight between Trump and Haley, which is exactly what Trump's Republican critics have been clamoring for. Haley appears