CEA Nageswaran: How India can sustain its pace of economic growth amid dramatic structural breaks and regime shifts
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The Economic Survey for 2025-26, being released on 29 January, comes at an extraordinary time for the world. Global politics is in flux.
Most agree that the world order they were comfortable with is no longer relevant. Beyond that, agreement ends. There is little clarity on what might replace it, or whether such clarity will emerge gradually or through a catalytic—or even cathartic—event.
Meanwhile, India has been patient, absorbing the pressure and quietly going about its goal of economic transformation, lifting aspirations and delivering on them. This is the backdrop in brief for the Economic Survey. This fiscal year has been another good one for economic growth and macroeconomic stability.
As of now, estimated growth in real terms is 7.4%. India has sustained growth since the pandemic and has roughly halved the Union government’s fiscal deficit as a proportion to gross domestic product—based on the projected 2025-26 budget deficit announced in February 2025—even while significantly ramping up public infrastructure investment. In other words, deficit reduction has been accompanied by an improvement in the quality of fiscal expenditure.
Fiscal prudence, conservatism and economic growth earned the country three credit-rating upgrades last year. India looks set to build on this record and enjoy a longer period of non-inflationary growth that has eluded it in previous cycles. That the banking sector is healthy and capital markets remain enthusiastic about funding startups are additional support factors.
The geopolitical environment, however, guarantees a rough ride. Since the beginning of 2025, the price of one dollar in Indian rupees has gone up by more than 6%. Over this shorter
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