

Chasing 12% equity returns? It may be the wrong goal
investment horizon is limited.For instance, a systematic investment plan (SIP) in the Nifty 50 started in January 2012 delivered a five-year return of about 9% per annum, but a seven-year return of roughly 12% per annum. Over longer holding periods, these fluctuations tend to smooth out. The same SIP has generated annual average returns of around 14% over 10–15-year periods.
This illustrates that realized returns depend heavily on the sequence of market movements, which stabilize only over time.For investing in mutual funds, the standard disclaimer that past performance is not indicative of future results, remains relevant. For example, a Nifty 50 SIP has experienced declines of up to 65% over one-year periods, yet over 10-year holding periods returns have historically remained positive at about 4% or more. The lesson is clear: time significantly reduces the risk of loss and should guide investors in choosing an appropriate investment horizon.While historical averages indicate a realistic range of outcomes, investors should moderate return expectations.
Returns have gradually declined over time. Seven-year SIP returns in the Nifty 50 have fallen from nearly 30% per annum in the early 2000s to about 15% per annum for a SIP started in January 2020. The road ahead is also likely to remain volatile amid geopolitical shifts and rapid technological change that challenge established economic patterns.A more meaningful use of past returns is to evaluate consistency rather than magnitude.
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