China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 -economists - Reuters poll
By Vivek Mishra
BENGALURU (Reuters) — China's economy will grow less than previously thought this year and next as a struggling property market dogs what was once the world's growth engine, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the risks were skewed to further downgrades.
The world's second-largest economy has been struggling after a brief post-COVID recovery, dragged by huge debt due to decades of infrastructure investment and a property downturn, posing risks not only to itself but also to the global economy.
With 70% of household wealth tied up in the ailing property market, coupled with rising youth unemployment, weak consumption demand and the reluctance by depressed private firms to invest, policymakers have been fighting an uphill job in reviving growth.
«The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back,» said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore.
«We have long been more bearish than most...but even we have been surprised by the speed at which growth has declined. The deceleration probably still has further to run.»
The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. Forecasts ranged between 4.5% and 5.5%.
While nearly all economists lowered their growth outlook for this year and next compared with the previous survey, the magnitude of those cuts was still marginal, leaving room for more downgrades.
Some economists cautioned the government's growth target of around 5% for this year could be missed as the drip-feed of policy stimulus from Beijing would not be enough to stabilise
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