China can't rely on Southeast Asian exports to offset a U.S. slowdown
BEIJING — China can't easily rely on its neighbors as export markets in a global slowdown, the latest trade data show.
Exports to the Association of Southeast Asia Nations have been growing. The 10-member bloc surpassed the European Union during the pandemic to become China's largest trading partner on a regional basis.
Data showed that exports to Southeast Asia fell by 16% in May compared to a year ago, dragging down China's overall exports.
Exports to the U.S. — China's largest trading partner on a single-country basis — fell by 18% from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms in May. That's according to official figures accessed through Wind Information.
At $42.48 billion, the U.S. exports in May were more than the $41.49 billion China exported to Southeast Asia that month, according to customs data.
Southeast Asia can't fully offset the loss from the U.S. market, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL.
ASEAN is made up of 10 countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
The U.S. is one single market versus a grouping of 10 countries, Pang pointed out, adding that companies can also sell at higher profit margins in the U.S. market.
Trade has been a key driver of China's growth, especially during the pandemic.
Exports still account for about 18% of the economy, although that's well below the roughly 30% share it once had, Tao Wang, head of Asia economics and chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank, told reporters Monday.
Slowing global growth, especially in the U.S. and Southeast Asia, doesn't bode well for the outlook on Chinese exports.
«We expect China's exports will remain subdued, as we anticipate the US
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