China gears up for next week's Third Plenum meeting. Here's why real estate isn't likely the main focus
BEIJING — China's real estate problems may be massive, but analysts expect the upcoming Third Plenum to focus on other areas — such as high local government debt levels and a push for advanced manufacturing.
The much-anticipated policy meeting, scheduled for Monday to Thursday, is a major gathering of the top members of the ruling Communist Party of China that typically happens only once every five years. This plenum was widely expected to be held last fall but has been delayed.
«The key challenge faced by Beijing is to find an alternative fiscal system, as the current one, which relies heavily on land sales, is under severe pressure due to the plunging land market,» Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in an email to CNBC.
He expects next week's meeting to focus on fiscal reform and other structural policies. Hu pointed out that cyclical policies — which can include property — are usually discussed at more regular meetings such as that of China's Politburo, expected in late July.
«Other than that, policymakers are also likely to reiterate [their] commitment to innovation, i.e. the so-called new productive forces,» Hu said, referring to Beijing's push to support advanced manufacturing and high-tech.
The Central Committee of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, made up of more than 300 people including full and alternate members, typically holds seven plenary meetings during each five-year term.
The Politburo is a group of about 24 people within that committee.
The Standing Committee of the Politburo, made up of seven key members, is the highest circle of power in China which is headed by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Party and President of China.
The Third Plenum has traditionally focused on economic
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