China’s construction slump has spelt a plateau for global cement production—and it’s good for the planet

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. What’s the most important commodity for modern civilization? There’s a good argument that it’s not the ones we think about—oil, gas, copper, iron ore, gold—but something that’s ubiquitous and rarely grabs the attention of financial markets: concrete. After water, it’s the substance we use most abundantly, with between 25 billion and 30 billion tonnes poured annually.

That’s roughly three times as much as all the coal we dig up. It’s also a major contributor to the world’s carbon footprint. Cement—the crucial mineral glue that holds concrete together—accounts for roughly 8% of our annual emissions.

Something striking is happening right now, however. After decades of growth, cement consumption has hit a wall. On current trends, we may never return to the peak 4.4 billion tonnes that was produced in 2021, even as India, Southeast Asia and Africa continue to industrialize and urbanize.

China has driven the global cement market for three decades and still accounts for nearly half of all output. But its boom is now well and truly over, with further falls ahead. Its output has slumped almost 30% since 2020, according to data released on Monday, and credit-rating agency CSCI Pengyuan expects it will decline for the sixth year in a row in 2026.

Prices are around their lowest levels in a decade and factories are saddled with more than twice the capacity they need. Despite regular predictions that the market is bottoming out, the floor area of newly-started commercial buildings through December, a key leading indicator, was the lowest since 2003. Yet, China is still producing nearly twice as much cement as it was back then.