China's economy is forecast to slow sharply in 2024, the World Bank says
The World Bank is forecasting that China's economy will slow next year, with annual growth falling to 4.5% from 5.2% this year
BANGKOK — China’s economy will slow next year, with annual growth falling to 4.5% from 5.2% this year despite a recent recovery spurred by investments in factories and construction and in demand for services, the World Bank said in a report issued Thursday.
The report said the recovery of the world’s second-largest economy from setbacks of the COVID-19 pandemic, among other shocks, remains “fragile,” dogged by weakness in the property sector and in global demand for China’s exports, high debt levels and wavering consumer confidence.
The estimate that growth would be around 5% this year but then fall in coming months was in line with other forecasts. Growth is expected to slow further in 2025, to 4.3% from 4.5% next year, the World Bank said.
The economy has yoyoed in the past few years, with growth ranging from 2.2% in 2020 to 8.4% in 2021 and 3% last year. Stringent limits on travel and other activities during the pandemic hit manufacturing and transport. Job losses due to those disruptions and to a crackdown on the technology sector, combined with a downturn in the property industry, have led many Chinese to tighten their purse strings.
Most of the jobs created during China's recovery have been low-skilled work in service industries with low pay, it noted. Chinese also are cautious given the threadbare nature of social safety nets and the fact that the population is rapidly aging, putting a heavier burden for supporting elders on younger generations.
“The outlook is subject to considerable downside risks,” the report said, adding that a prolonged downturn in the real estate sector would
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