China is in the midst of a breakneck expansion of its copper industry that’s reshaping global flows of the essential metal for the world’s energy transition.
The smelter build-up will be a key talking point for hundreds of copper-industry executives descending this week on China’s commodity hub of Shanghai for Asia Copper Week. Miners and smelters will negotiate key annual ore-supply contracts, and attendees will take the latest temperature of Chinese demand.
Despite the financial toll of the pandemic and China’s property crisis, the nation’s metals consumption has been relatively strong in 2023.
That has probably helped copper stave off an even deeper market slump, with prices only slightly lower than this time last year.
CRU sees copper demand in China growing 5% this year, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
named copper as one of its top commodities picks for next year on a “robust green demand environment” — especially in the Asian powerhouse.
“We expect to find Chinese players slightly less cautious than may have been feared two months ago,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets Ltd., wrote in a note ahead of the Shanghai gathering.
Same Path
The expansion of smelting capacity echoes the history of China’s other metals industries. Until 2006, the country was a net importer of steel, for example.