



City gas distributors’ CNG margins hinge on OMC price hike call
crude oil to India.Higher oil and gas prices should force CGDs and oil marketing companies (OMCs) to raise prices of CNG and auto fuels. Nomura estimates that CGDs source 30%-40% of their natural gas requirement from imported LNG. As imported LNG prices rise (due to higher pricing and shipping costs), CGDs must raise the CNG price to maintain their Ebitda margins.
But CGDs can afford to raise CNG prices without losing a competitive edge, only if OMCs increase auto fuel prices. Ebitda is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.Private companies such as Reliance Industries Ltd and Nayara Energy may increase auto fuel prices, but state-owned OMCs may not be allowed to do so easily, as it is a politically sensitive matter. If OMCs do not hike prices, auto fuel volumes could gain at the expense of CNG volumes.
If CGDs absorb higher costs, then Nomura estimates IGL and MGL’s Ebitda to drop 22% and 15%, respectively, for every 10% increase in imported gas costs. Both companies derive about 25% of their sales volume from piped natural gas (PNG) that competes with liquified petroleum gas (LPG).The PNG segment faces limited threats to volume and margins as CGDs receive natural gas under an administered pricing mechanism (APM) in the domestic market at a lower rate than imported natural gas. Thus, IGL and MGL investors face a near-term worry about customers switching over to auto fuels.
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