Coal India faces heat from renewables despite near-term pricing uptick
Coal India Ltd’s shares hit a new 52-week high of ₹467.90 on the NSE on Thursday, gaining over 4% when the Nifty 50 index declined 0.5%, possibly on expectations of higher prices at its e-auctions as global coal prices rise due to the West Asia conflict.The flare-up in oil and gas prices is spilling over to the international coal market, too. Higher global coal prices would hurt domestic import volumes and push CIL’s e-auction premiums and offtake higher.The state-owned company sells some of its output through e-auctions at market-determined prices, in addition to fuel supply agreements (FSA) with power producers.
CIL’s e-auction premiums had risen to over three times the FSA price in the September 2022 quarter after the Russia-Ukraine war began, against a long-term average of about 60%.The global coal market also firmed up after Indonesia cut its production quota for 2026 by almost 25% in January to support falling prices. Indonesia also increased its domestic sales obligation to 30% from 25% earlier, reducing volumes available for exports.CIL is also expected to benefit from a demand push due to favourable weather.“With summer 2026 approaching, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation transitioning, we expect pick up in power demand, providing a tailwind to CIL's offtake volumes from Q1FY27 onwards,” Axis Direct said in a report on 6 March.Yet, rapid growth in renewable energy capacity addition means CIL is staring at a structural decline in demand.
Almost 40GW of renewable energy generation capacity was added in the first 10 months of FY26, against 8GW of thermal capacity, as per the Central Electricity Authority.Thermal power generation in this period fell 4.4%, against 23% growth in renewable energy generation. CIL’s sales
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