Coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, is preparing for a long goodbye
coal to history, the dirtiest fossil fuel is having a moment.
Thanks to a combination of China’s energy insecurity — pushing Beijing back to trusted power sources — plus rising Indian demand, the continued fallout from the war in Ukraine and faltering international programs to wean developing economies off fossil fuels, coal is proving remarkably resilient. Output hit a record last year, and producers are preparing for a future where they will be required for decades yet to balance renewable energy.
Even prices are holding up. While thermal coal is trading at just a fraction of the lofty levels reached in 2022, after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor, prices are still well above historic norms. Benchmark Newcastle coal futures are changing hands just under $130 a ton, roughly a quarter of the peak but higher than any level between 2011 and 2020.
Much of this second wind is down to Asia. In 2000, the International Energy Agency estimated advanced economies accounted for almost half of coal consumption. By 2026, China and India alone will make up more than 70%. Those two heavyweights and Indonesia started operating new coal power plants amounting to 59 gigawatts last year, and either launched or revived proposals for another 131 gigawatts — about 93% of the world’s total, according to Global Energy Monitor.
“You look at Asia, the demand and the build out of coal-fired power plants, particularly in India — coal’s not going anywhere anytime soon,” Rob Bishop, chief executive officer of Australian miner New Hope
