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Commodity Talk: What crude oil's 3-year low means to investors and traders? Axis Securities analyst decodes
Q: Brent is at a three-year low, down nearly 6% in the past one week. And it is currently trading below the $70 per barrel mark. Now, while low oil prices are good news for customers, traders, and investors who already have a position may not see it as a happy turn of events. I would like to know how much has this price fallen on the MCX this year and what range do you see in the near to medium term?
So, first of all, the decline in crude oil is always welcome in India as you know that we are the major importer of crude oil. If we talk about the decline in crude oil, so on MCX, prices have come down by close to 6%. In the near term, I expect that prices should stabilise between 5,300 to 6,000 levels.
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This will be the broader trading range for the next 4-5 months. There are concerns of oversupply in the market and weak demand as well and so the prices could remain under pressure for this year. But if geo-political tensions arise, it can support crude oil prices and we can expect some rally in international markets. So, this will affect the prices in MCX as well.
Q: So, in that case, what should investors and traders do with crude oil?
My advice to investors and traders will be that the risk management should be very strict if they are trading in crude oil futures. They should keep buying the dips over the near term because we know that the production cost for crude oil in the international market is close to more than $55 to $60.
So, below that, I do not expect that prices will remain for a longer period of
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