By historical standards, the labor market remains remarkably strong. Payroll growth last month clocked in above 230,000, more than double what was once considered normal. The unemployment rate, at 3.5%, stayed near its lowest in more than 50 years.
Several crosscurrents are at work beneath the surface, and a closer look suggests the labor market is cooling quite rapidly. And yet it hasn’t cooled enough for the Federal Reserve to conclude inflation is going to fall back to its 2% target. So while labor demand hasn’t fallen to recessionary levels, it may still.
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