Crypto bros turn back time on their Rolexes, Patek Philippes

moneycontrol.com:

Inflation? What inflation? It’s gotten so much cheaper to get your hands on a Rolex.

After a boom and bust in the market for pre-owned watches over the past three years, there have lately been signs of stability, particularly for Rolex. Time may now even be running out for bargain hunters, though that will depend on whether crypto bros are finished offloading their collections and if a resurgent China compensates for slowing demand in the US.

Interest in watches exploded during the pandemic. Lockdowns led people to pour the money they would have spent on vacations into luxury goods. The result was a rush toward Hermes and Dior handbags among women, while the first choice for men was a Rolex.

With the supply of new watches constrained — Swiss asset manager Vontobel estimates Rolex produces about 1.1 million to 1.2 million timepieces a year, whereas Patek Philippe makes about 70,000-75,000 and Audemars Piguet about 50,000 — waiting lists to purchase new models from retailers grew, and many buyers turned to the secondary market instead, sending prices for popular styles to many multiples of their cost in a store. 

Add in roaring stock markets and cryptocurrencies, and by early last year, premier watches — particularly the three most hyped names, the Rolex Daytona, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and the Patek Philippe Nautilus — were behaving more like volatile Bitcoin than luxury assets.

Consequently, the most hyped names have lost 30 percent-40 percent of their value since the peak almost exactly a year ago. As the big three brands, Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet, account for about 70 percent of the secondary watch market, according to WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley, their declines had an outsized effect. Indexes that