Current Account Deficit expected to reach year's high of 1.2 % of GDP in FY24 third quarter, predicts ratings agency

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Ind-Ra) has released its analysis on the current account balance (CAB) for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24 (3QFY24), projecting a deficit of approximately USD11 billion, equivalent to 1.2 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to a press release, this forecast represents a marginal increase from the previous quarter's deficit of 1.0 per cent of GDP and marks a year's high, surpassing the deficit recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year (3QFY23: USD16.8 billion, 2.0 per cent of GDP).

Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist at Ind-Ra, expressed expectations for a dip in the current account deficit in the subsequent quarter, attributing this outlook to signs of economic recovery amidst the global economic environment's uncertainties.

Sinha said, «Ind-Ra expects the current account deficit to dip in 4QFY24. Although the global economic environment remains uncertain, there are nascent signs of a pick-up in economic activity. The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expanded for the first time in 17 months in February 2024 (50.3). The expansion was stronger in the US and emerging economies (barring the European region).»

He noted that the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expanded for the first time in 17 months in February 2024, with particularly robust growth observed in the US and emerging economies, except for the European region.

Ind-Ra anticipates merchandise exports to rise to approximately USD117 billion in 4QFY24,