General Elections, inflation and interest rate trajectory are the key risks. "Any possible mandate from the forthcoming General Election, which leads to political instability or any possible spike in global oil prices (due to strong recovery in global economic growth) significantly beyond $120 a barrel will lead to Sensex falling below 55,000. These are two key risk factors for the domestic market in the next one year," said G.
Chokkalingam, Founder and Head of Research at Equinomics Research. Also Read: Stock Markets and Diwali 2023: What could be the top challenges before Nifty 50 in Samvat 2080? Analysts explain However, Chokkalingam believes the domestic equity market could rise 15 per cent and the Sensex could rise to 75,000 by the next Diwali. "Maintaining above 6 per cent GDP growth would be a major trigger for this gain.
Over 6 per cent growth would be the fastest among major economies in the world and therefore, we can expect significant net inflow from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)," Chokkalingam said. (Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels. Subscribe today and stay updated with the latest financial insights! Click here!) After the broadly in-line Q2 results, the concerns over market valuations have also eased.
Some experts believe with healthy economic growth, the earnings of India Inc. will also rise which will sustain the high valuations of the domestic stock market. Considering this, experts see healthy double-digit growth of the Indian market by Diwali 2024.
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