Drought in England could carry on into new year, experts warn

theguardian.com:

South-east England could be tipped into severe and devastating drought without above-average rainfall this winter, while current water use restrictions in London and surrounding areas are expected to last until the new year even if rainfall returns, ministers have been told. Severe drought would mean even tighter restrictions, such as bans on non-essential uses of water including cleaning windows and filling and maintaining swimming pools.

Though it is too soon to forecast weather for this winter, anything less than substantial rainfall could lead to London being placed under much stricter measures next year, experts have told the Observer. One Whitehall source said officials were being told to prepare for a potential severe drought throughout the south-east.

Drought falls into four categories: prolonged dry weather, drought, severe drought and recovering from drought. If autumn and winter do not produce substantial heavy rain, ministers have been warned, in a briefing seen by the Observer, then the south-east could reach severe drought early next year, necessitating far greater restrictions on water use.

River flows are now lower than those seen in 2012, when drought was declared in February after a dry winter, and Londoncame close to severe water shortages just months ahead of the Olympics. Tony Juniper, outgoing chair of Natural England, said: “We were saved by extreme rain from April 2012, which meant low flows instead of London closing down.” Of the several near-droughts in recent years, he said, “this one is far and away the worst so far”.

The impact is likely to hit the natural environment and farming harder than households, according to Alastair Chisholm, director of policy at the Chartered Institute of Water and