Due to demand-supply mismatches, pulses inflation to stay high till October: Experts
Demand-supply mismatches could keep prices of pulses elevated until the new crop starts arriving in the market in October, putting further pressure on already high food inflation, say experts.
Higher prices of pulses — tur, chana and urad — despite myriad measures to keep them under check have been a cause of concern for the government.
In April, inflation in pulses was 16.8%, with tur at 31.4%, gram at 14.6% and urad at 14.3%. Pulses account for a 6% weight in the food basket and 2.4% in the overall consumer basket for inflation calculation. Food inflation accelerated to 8.7% in April from 8.5% the previous month.
«New crop comes October onwards, and given that tur production was down last year, there would be lower stocks, which will exert pressure on prices,» said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda. Monsoon's progress will drive sentiment on inflation in pulses, which will be in double digits till then, Sabnavis said. "Pulses inflation has been in double digits for 11 months and is unlikely to ease until the end of the second quarter of FY24," said Paras Jasrai, senior analyst at India Ratings & Research.
This will be one of the push factors for food inflation, Jasrai said, adding: «If monsoon conditions are not conducive, the pulse inflation could stay higher for an even longer period.»
«The next sowing of pulses — mainly tur and urad — will only start in June-July after the onset of monsoon, with harvest for urad happening in October-November while that of tur starting January,» said Suresh
