Earnings growth uncertain as inflation and policy shifts weigh on corporate outlook
Earnings for companies within the S&P 500 are expected to have grown by about 9.4% in 2024, according to FactSet
NEW YORK — Wall Street expects corporate profits to have surged in 2024 and forecasts an even stronger jump for 2025.
Companies still face a long list of uncertainties in the year ahead, including economic policy shifts, reheated inflation and shifts in the jobs market and consumer spending.
Earnings for companies within the S&P 500 are expected to have grown by about 9.4% in 2024, according to FactSet. Companies will start reporting their final quarterly financial results for that year in the next few weeks. It will mark a sharp gain from 1.4% growth in 2023.
Profit growth for companies followed the rising economic tide. The labor market remained strong, helping support consumer spending for goods and services. Prices remain high on many items and services, but the rate of inflation has eased significantly, helping companies lower costs in some cases and relieving some pressure on consumers.
Wall Street's 2025 forecast for over 12% profit growth relies largely on those conditions continuing to prevail. Earnings will be closely-watched as a key measure to justify the broader markets gains.
“With the market looking expensive versus history, it wouldn’t be surprising if earnings growth were a greater driver of market performance than in recent years, making companies’ ability to deliver on profitability estimates all the more critical in 2025," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management, in a research note.
The Federal Reserve's path ahead for interest rates also remains a factor for companies and consumers looking for less pressure on borrowing costs. The central bank cut its
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