Eichengreen: Gold stack-ups by central banks reflect dismal prospects of globalization
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Gold may be a “barbarous relic,” as John Maynard Keynes once observed, but it remains the relic of choice among central banks. Emerging-market central banks have been loading up on gold reserves ever since the 2008 global financial crisis, more than doubling their holdings. Does the anomalous behaviour of gold prices since the outbreak of the war with Iran call this strategy into question, or is something else going on?Gold’s allure derives from its reputation as a safe haven and inflation hedge.
Yet in March, following the start of the war, an event that should have supported demand for gold on both grounds, its dollar price fell by 10%. Prices then remained flat in April. Evidently gold is not quite the safe haven and inflation hedge investors thought it was.Various explanations have been offered for this anomalous behaviour.
Traders incurring losses on other investments may have sold gold futures and funds to meet margin calls. Higher interest rates, or at least diminished expectations of interest-rate cuts, may have caused investors to shift from gold to bonds. Turkey’s central bank sold gold to obtain the foreign exchange needed to support the country’s currency, the lira.
Other central banks may have followed suit.In any case, this episode is a reminder that gold prices can be volatile. So, should central bankers rethink their investment strategies?Consider why central banks hold gold. Holding bullion has history on its side, having long been a sign of respectability for central banks.
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