Eight things to watch out for in the Union budget

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. As finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman sets out to present her record ninth consecutive Union budget, the Indian economy is experiencing a rare goldilocks period of high economic growth and low inflation. At the same time, uncertainty abounds as the world is disrupted by geopolitical crises and tariff wars which have upended global trade like never before.

This will engage the FM's attention. She is also well aware that India’s enviable headline numbers mask some inherent challenges. The economic expansion, for instance, is powered largely by government spending, with other engines of growth such as private investment, public consumption and exports remaining sluggish.

To sustain a high rate of growth, all of them have to contribute strongly and the budget is expected to provide the necessary impetus for that. The need for reforms has never been felt more urgently. The government has already initiated some significant reforms, but a lot more needs to be done.

The budget will be the right platform to set out the reform vision for 2026-27 and beyond. Mint has identified eight elements that one should watch for in this budget. They will determine the growth trajectory of the Indian economy.

The good news is that India continues to be the fastest-growing large economy in the world. The first advance estimates from the government pegs 2025-26 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.4%. To improve the quality of data, India will adopt a new base year of 2022-23, replacing the earlier base of 2011-12.

The new series will better reflect the structural changes in the economy. But it remains to be seen how growth numbers will pan out once it is implemented next month. However, what should