El Niño Winter on the horizon: What to expect in the US and how long will it last?
El Niño's Impact on Winter Weather
El Niño occurs when the equatorial Pacific Ocean experiences prolonged periods of warmer-than-average temperatures. This year's El Niño began in June and is expected to persist into early spring, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasting its strength.
For the past three winters, its cooler counterpart, La Niña, dominated the scene in the US. However, with El Niño's return, we can anticipate distinct alterations in our winter weather.
Jet Stream Shift and Precipitation
The position of the jet stream plays a pivotal role in El Niño winters. Typically, it shifts southward during this phase, leading to wetter and cooler conditions in the South, while the North tends to experience drier and warmer weather. Increased storm frequency accompanies this jet stream shift, especially in the southern Plains and Southeast. States such as Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, grappling with drought, could benefit from this boost in precipitation.
Furthermore, the combination of cooler temperatures and enhanced precipitation raises the likelihood of wintry precipitation in the South, including freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
Conversely, El Niño generally results in milder winters in the North, affecting regions from the Pacific Northwest to the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest. While occasional storms may bring cold snaps and heavy snowfall, they tend to be less frequent.
Challenges for the Midwest and Pacific Northwest
A milder winter in the Midwest could pose difficulties for areas already grappling with severe drought. Additionally, a reduced snowpack in the Pacific Northwest, a vital water source for the region, would be concerning.
California, the Southwest, and the Northeast experience less
