El Niño News

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Rural-linked companies reported their strongest volume-led recovery in years in the March quarter (Q4FY26), driven by low inflation, healthy farm incomes and rising non-farm employment from infrastructure spending. Aggressive government welfare spending further boosted rural consumption across staples and discretionary categories.But experts warn the recovery may already be approaching its first major stress test.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.In a reminder that the inflation beast is never fully tamed, but can at best be forced to retreat temporarily, wholesale price inflation in India jumped to a 42-month high of 8.3% in April. That’s more than double the previous month’s 3.9% and a far cry from the 0.9% recorded a year ago. The longer global oil supply remains disrupted, the likelier it will go into double digits.And with diesel and petrol filling-station prices hiked only in May (and more hikes likely), it is just a matter of time before retail inflation, already at a 13-month high of 3.5% in April, increases.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.MUMBAI: India’s petrol and diesel price hike, alongside a volatile crude oil outlook, is set to ripple across key sectors and is already feeding early market pressure, with analysts warning of further inflation if global oil prices climb.Oil marketing companies (OMCs) finally bit the bullet and raised prices of petrol and diesel by around ₹3 a litre on Friday amid elevated global prices. More hikes are expected going ahead as under-recoveries remain high.Higher fuel prices are expected to feed quickly into logistics and freight costs, with transport operators unlikely to absorb higher diesel expenses, triggering cost pass-through across supply chains and sectors dependent on transportation and energy-intensive inputs, potentially widening inflation pressures across the economy, according to experts.“We raise FY27 headline inflation to 5% versus 4.6% earlier assuming a ₹10 per litre hike in retail fuel prices, along with the impact of El Niño-led adverse monsoons,” said Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global.The cost pressures come at a time when corporate earnings in consumption- and transport-linked sectors are already under strain from elevated input costs and uneven demand recovery.Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to face higher distribution and input costs, even as they continue to grapple with already elevated raw material inflation.Large FMCG players have already begun raising prices as fuel, packaging and food commodity costs continue to rise.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.MUMBAI: India’s consumer durables makers have begun the current fiscal with cautious optimism, betting on a stronger summer and early demand recovery after a bruising FY26 marked by erratic weather, raw material inflation, supply-chain disruptions and weak operating leverage.“We remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects for FY27,” Nikhil Sohoni, chief financial officer, Blue Star Ltd, said during the company’s Q4 earnings call, while cautioning that rising input costs and volatile exchange rates would make managing margins challenging.Expectations of a stronger summer have lifted sentiment, helped by a weak FY26 base and demand strength in March–May. March was one of Voltas’s highest-ever sales months, while April and May also saw strong dealer-level sales.The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a harsher summer and below-normal monsoon amid emerging El Niño conditions.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Berger Paints India Ltd’s shares soared over 6% on Wednesday as volume growth bounced back to double-digits at 11.8% for the three months ended March (Q4FY26) after a gap of six quarters. The decorative paints segment saw traction in premium emulsion paints and new launches of Kolor Plus and Kolor Plus Glow. Volume growth was driven by both secondary sales and pre-buying by dealers ahead of price hikes, the management said.Starting March, Berger has taken staggered price hikes of 11-12% to protect margins in the backdrop of rising cost inflation due to the West Asia war.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) ended FY26 on a good note, clocking an underlying volume growth of 6% for the three months through March (Q4FY26), a multi-quarter high, supported by steady demand across both rural and urban markets. The improvement is notable, with volume growth rising from 4% in Q3 after a muted Q2, when volumes were broadly flat. The company expects FY27 to be stronger than FY26, driven by portfolio shifts and channel transformation.The durability of this recovery, however, will be tested in the coming quarters.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Shares of state-owned miner Coal India Ltd (CIL) rose around 7%, hitting its 52-week high of ₹491.25 on Thursday, after robust March quarter (Q4FY26) performance.Investor interest also seems to be driven by the recent rise in temperatures. As per the government data, peak power demand rose to 256 GW on 25 April, breaching the previous peak of 250 GW hit on 30 May 2024.Electricity consumption during 1-27 April grew sharply by 9% year-on-year (y-o-y).

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.India's weakest monsoon forecast in 26 years hasn't rattled Dalal Street much, raising the risk that investors are underpricing pockets of stress.The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) first estimate pegs 2026 rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), flagging chances of below-normal precipitation. Amid persistent foreign investor outflows, elevated crude prices and patchy earnings, monsoon risks are being seen as incremental.However, experts caution that a weak monsoon could choke farm cash flows, dampen rural credit demand, and sour asset quality before broader consumption trends buckle.Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) with exposure to vehicle loans and micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) financing in rural markets are most closely aligned with the monsoon cycle.Unlike fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), consumer durables, and autos—which can cushion rural weakness through premiumization and urban demand—these lenders' books are directly tied to farm incomes.The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) expects rabi crop income to grow just 0.8% year-on-year in FY26 due to low food inflation, down from almost 11% last year and well below the above-8% annual trend seen since FY16.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.NEW DELHI: The Centre plans to buy 1 million tonnes of chana (gram) to build adequate buffer stocks to manage potential supply shortfalls and ensure steady availability in the open market, two officials said.The purchases through the Price Stabilisation Fund are part of graded measures to keep prices of essential food grains stable and prevent market volatility amid forecasts of a below-normal monsoon this year and the possibility of El Niño, a weather phenomenon that increases the risk of drought and reduced crop yields.“The procurement drive will be carried out under existing price support mechanisms, with agencies stepping in to buy from farmers both to support farm-gate prices and to maintain retail price stability,” one official said.India’s chana production climbed 6.2% to 11.8 million tonnes in FY26, with the yield up 1.6% to 1,238 kg per hectare.“Chana production has improved significantly this crop year compared to last year, largely due to the import duty on chana and yellow peas. This has supported domestic prices and encouraged higher sowing.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Economists often talk of ‘inflationary expectations’ and one may be left wondering what these mean. In essence, the argument goes that present inflation is not relevant as this has already been witnessed. What is important is future inflation, which is why expectations of price levels matter.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.With a parched monsoon forecast and a fertilizer supply chain disrupted by conflict in West Asia, Indian agriculture is caught between two raging storms. The India Meteorological Department has predicted a below-normal monsoon, while national fertilizer stocks sit at less than half of what’s required for the upcoming Kharif season.As El Niño threatens to dry up the fields and imported urea becomes harder to secure, the resilience of India's food production and the stability of rural demand are facing their toughest test in years.Mint explores whether these twin challenges will spark a spike in food prices or significantly dent farmers’ incomes.The four-month monsoon spanning June-September is critical for two reasons: India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during these months, and nearly 45% of the country's farmland lacks irrigation, leaving it solely dependent on these rains.The India Meteorological Department has forecast the monsoon to be below normal at 92% of the long-period (50-year) average.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.As investors gauge the full impact of the West Asia war on crude oil-led inflation, another problem seems to be emerging. The India Meteorological Department and private forecaster Skymet Weather Services predict rainfall in the June-September monsoon season may fall short of the long-term average.

The El Niño phenomenon could result in one of the driest monsoons in India in at least eight years.Private forecaster Skymet has predicted: the rainfall is likely to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA), or below-normal. While the predictions are in line with broader expectations of low rainfall, Skymet is known for giving more conservative predictions than the official India Meteorological Department (IMD).Both agencies fail to predict the intensity of rainfall accurately more often than not, but Skymet’s track record has worsened in recent years.

Every month, Mint’s Plain Facts section brings out an update on key global data to thread together the biggest developments in the world that are worth paying attention to. The accompanying analysis and charts explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it can impact India.Major central banks are expected to remain cautious in the coming weeks as the war in West Asia has clouded the global economic outlook, with supply disruptions and higher oil prices stoking fears of stagflation.The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the near future, amid the war fog, trying a balancing act between a possible increase in inflation and a slowdown in growth.

La Nina may not be sufficient to offset the rising temperatures in a warmer future. As India grapples with unusually high temperatures, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an early and intense summer this year, with prolonged heatwaves. The country recently saw its warmest February since 1901, along with one of the driest winters in recent history, which has raised concerns about the ongoing climate crisis. Human-caused climate change is leading to a «new normal» of warmer winters and shorter springs. However, scientists emphasize that annual weather patterns, known as «year-to-year variability,» still play a crucial role in influencing seasonal conditions.

If you’re thinking of getting your winter tires, now might be a good time.

Canadians hoping for a more snowy winter this year may be in luck — but where you live may influence how much and how long it will last.

IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) has noted a slight drop in both maximum and minimum temperatures in Delhi/NCR, with current temperatures ranging between 30-32°C during the day and 14-19°C at night.

The United Nations' food agency says months of drought in southern Africa triggered by the El Niño weather phenomenon have had a devastating impact on more than 27 million people and caused the region’s worst hunger crisis in decades

Zambia’s worst electricity blackouts in memory have been caused by a severe drought in the region that has left the critical Kariba dam with insufficient water to run its hydroelectric turbines