Iran war, Oracle layoffs, El Niño worries: What’s keeping the world on edge

Every month, Mint’s Plain Facts section brings out an update on key global data to thread together the biggest developments in the world that are worth paying attention to. The accompanying analysis and charts explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it can impact India.Major central banks are expected to remain cautious in the coming weeks as the war in West Asia has clouded the global economic outlook, with supply disruptions and higher oil prices stoking fears of stagflation.The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the near future, amid the war fog, trying a balancing act between a possible increase in inflation and a slowdown in growth.

The European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of India have already held rates steady.RBI held its policy rate at 5.25% to balance growth support and currency pressures, while the ECB maintained rates at 2.15%, though there are expectations of further tightening later this year. Policymakers are grappling with elevated oil prices and supply crunch impacting industrial activity.

This has reinforced a wait-and-watch approach. Central bank officials are prioritizing stability, signalling that any shift in rates will depend on clearer evidence on inflation and the broader impact of geopolitical tensions on growth.In the past year, the world has witnessed two major developments that rattled the entire world: Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and the war in West Asia.

While both threatened to change the global world order, their impact on the currency movements of different countries varied significantly. A Mint analysis of the first 37