Mint Explainer | Weather and war: Twin storms spell trouble for Indian farming

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.With a parched monsoon forecast and a fertilizer supply chain disrupted by conflict in West Asia, Indian agriculture is caught between two raging storms. The India Meteorological Department has predicted a below-normal monsoon, while national fertilizer stocks sit at less than half of what’s required for the upcoming Kharif season.As El Niño threatens to dry up the fields and imported urea becomes harder to secure, the resilience of India's food production and the stability of rural demand are facing their toughest test in years.Mint explores whether these twin challenges will spark a spike in food prices or significantly dent farmers’ incomes.The four-month monsoon spanning June-September is critical for two reasons: India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during these months, and nearly 45% of the country's farmland lacks irrigation, leaving it solely dependent on these rains.The India Meteorological Department has forecast the monsoon to be below normal at 92% of the long-period (50-year) average.

Because of the emergence of El Niño—a phenomenon in which unusual warming of Pacific Ocean waters can lead to lower precipitation over the Indian subcontinent—the second half of the monsoon (August and September) is likely to be drier. Private forecaster Skymet has also forecast a below-normal monsoon at 94% of the long-period average (LPA).The distribution of rainfall across time and geography is critical.

Long dry spells during the grain formation stage can affect yields, particularly for crops grown in marginal, unirrigated lands, such as pulses and oilseeds.However, the resilience of food production to deficient rain has improved significantly over the years. In 2023, monsoon