Rainfall below normal? How accurate are predictions by Skymet, IMD?

The El Niño phenomenon could result in one of the driest monsoons in India in at least eight years.Private forecaster Skymet has predicted: the rainfall is likely to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA), or below-normal. While the predictions are in line with broader expectations of low rainfall, Skymet is known for giving more conservative predictions than the official India Meteorological Department (IMD).Both agencies fail to predict the intensity of rainfall accurately more often than not, but Skymet’s track record has worsened in recent years.

Accurate monsoon prediction is crucial for making informed decisions about agricultural activities and water resource management in the country.Skymet has predicted rainfall at 94% of the LPA. This puts rainfall slightly below the normal rainfall range of 96-104%.The last time India faced such a situation was in 2023—another El Niño year—when rainfall was 94.6 of the LPA.

The situation was worse in 2018 when rainfall was only 90.6% of the LPA.However, the more concerning aspect lies beyond the headline forecast. Skymet has assigned a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall and a 30% chance of deficient rainfall or a drought-like condition.

Put together, there is a 70% chance that rainfall conditions will be poor, worse than the 60% probability seen in 2023.If these predictions materialize, the economic consequences could be significant, particularly amid ongoing disruptions from the West Asia war that are already causing fertilizer shortages and price pressures. India had faced a somewhat similar situation in 2023 when the disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war, along with El Niño effects, had caused food shortages and price spikes around the world.