Event prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are buzzing in America: Should India allow them too?

"Khamenei Out.” That was the title of an event wager on the prediction market Kalshi. On the website of its rival, Polymarket, wagers were being made on “the timing of the Iran war” just before it began. Posts by Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics tool, on X indicate that six accounts collectively pocketed $1.2 million in profit from Polymarket bets.

These bets were funded in the hours immediately before Saturday’s action began. After Israel and the US began combat operations against Iran on 28 February morning by Iran time, newer wagers began showing up. “Iran regime fall by?” “New Iranian regime in by?” “Next Supreme Leader of Iran?” “Reza Pahlavi return by?” These were the titles of some of the more popular wagers on the site.

Each of the bets has a probability associated with it. As a predictor, you must either bet for or against that outcome. For instance, 28% believe that the price of oil will reach $100 and 45% believe that it will cross $90 by 31 March (the exact details of the oil futures contract are specified in the wager).

There are, of course, related wagers such as “who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President”? Interestingly, since the war in Iran began, US Vice President J.D. Vance’s probability remains unchanged at about 42%. This translates to 21:29 odds of Vance making it as the party’s nominee.

On the same bet, Ron De Santis and incumbent President Donald Trump are tied at 2.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi are America’s two big prediction markets. Kalshi is the original federally regulated US exchange, offering event contracts across politics, economics, sports and more.