By Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) — Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC are scheduled to meet in Vienna on Sunday and could make further changes to an agreement that already limits supply into 2024, according to analysts and OPEC+ sources, to support the market.
Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries have already pledged oil output cuts of about 5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022.
This figure includes a 1 million bpd voluntary reduction by Saudi Arabia and a 300,000 bpd cut in Russian oil exports, both of which last until the end of 2023.
WHAT IS AGREED ALREADY FOR 2024?
OPEC+ at its last meeting in June extended oil output cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, until the end of 2024.
That figure comprises a 2 million bpd cut agreed in 2022, and a further 1.66 million bpd in voluntary cuts from nine OPEC+ countries agreed earlier this year.
The group also cut its overall production targets from January 2024 by a further 1.27 million bpd versus current targets to a combined 40.58 million bpd, including a later adjustment made to Russia's 2024 target.
Including the additional voluntary cuts, which the nine participating countries extended to the end of 2024, this results in an even lower implied target in 2024 according to Reuters calculations (see table).
In real terms though, this is around 740,000 bpd higher than OPEC+'s October 2023 production compared with International Energy Agency (IEA) figures, given the impact of the 1 million bpd Saudi voluntary cut being in place.
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