F&O Talk | Nifty’s 4% rally: Start of a bull run or a trap? Hegded.in’s Rahul Ghose shares his view

Nifty 50 index posting its biggest weekly gain in over four years. The rally was driven by renewed foreign investor interest and expectations that the worst of the recent market downturn is over.

The NSE Nifty 50 closed 0.69% higher at 23,350, while the BSE Sensex gained 0.73% to settle at 76,905—both at six-week highs. For the week, both indices surged about 4.2%.

Rahul Ghose, Founder of Hegded.in, spoke to ETMarkets about the outlook for Nifty and Bank Nifty in the coming week. Below are the edited excerpts from his chat:

General view on how the market looks right now

As of March 22, 2025, the Indian stock market has shown signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn. The Nifty 50 index has experienced a 4% weekly gain, marking its best performance since July 2022. This rebound is attributed to attractive large-cap valuations and a moderation in foreign outflows.

However, despite this strong recovery of 1,400–1,500 points from the March 4 low, the Nifty has fallen nearly 4,000 points from its highs. This suggests that while short-term momentum is positive, caution is still warranted. On the technical front, Nifty is still forming lower highs and lower lows on the weekly charts. A breakout above 23,800–23,850 in the coming week would signal a trend reversal.

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Nifty broke above its falling trendline and gave a neckline breakout of a double bottom. Does this give enough confirmation about the reversal in the trend?

On the shorter-term daily time frame charts, Nifty has indeed broken the falling