Fall of Syrian regime exposes limits of Russia’s global ambitions
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The collapse of the House of Assad has exposed a seam of vulnerability for another autocrat, one of the former Syrian leader’s strongest allies: Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the height of Putin’s great power ambitions, Moscow sought to project its might far beyond the country’s vast frontiers.
It planted bases in the Middle East and Arctic, expanding a shadowy mercenary force into Africa and competing with the U.S. and China for global influence. Now, with Moscow’s money, attention and ammunition focused on its conflict with Ukraine, the Kremlin’s global power projects are in a state of slow decay.
In Syria, Russia’s air and naval bases have served not only as Moscow’s interface with Syrian allies Iran and Hezbollah, but as a regional bridgehead to funnel troops, mercenaries and arms across the Mediterranean to Africa. Russia’s foothold in Syria was cemented by its 2015 bombing campaign that saved Bashar al-Assad, and forced Washington, Israel and the Gulf states to reckon with the Kremlin as a new power player in the region. But Moscow didn’t unleash a similar level of air power against the rebel offensive that overthrew the Syrian dictator this month.
With Assad gone, Russia’s arrangement in Syria is in doubt. The future of its bases there is now subject to negotiations with the new Syrian leadership. If Russia is stripped of its main leverage in the region, it will have to look elsewhere, including to Algeria, Sudan or Libya, for potential replacement bases—though few options offer the same advantages as Syria’s Tartus port, one of Russia’s few accessible warm-water ports.
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