Fed's favourite underlying inflation gauge is seen cooling

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Federal Reserve's first-line inflation gauge is about to show some modest relief from stubborn price pressures, corroborating central bankers' prudence about the timing of interest-rate cuts.

Economists expect the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy — due on Friday — to rise 0.2% in April. That would mark the smallest advance so far this year for the measure, which provides a better snapshot of underlying inflation.

The overall PCE price index probably climbed 0.3% for a third month, according to median projection in a Bloomberg survey. Increases this year stand in contrast to relatively flat readings in the final three months of 2023, underscoring uneven progress for the Fed in its inflation fight.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have stressed the need for more evidence that inflation is on a sustained path to their 2% goal before cutting the benchmark interest rate, which has been at a two-decade high since July. The PCE price measure is seen rising 2.7% on an annual basis, while the core metric is expected at 2.8% — both matching the prior month's levels.

Officials earlier this month coalesced around a desire to hold interest rates higher for longer and «many» questioned whether policy was restrictive enough to bring inflation down to their target, according to minutes of their last meeting.
The latest inflation numbers will be accompanied by personal spending and income figures.