Fitch lowers world growth forecast amid tariffs chaos
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. SYDNEY : Fitch Ratings has added its name to a slew of prominent forecasters downgrading the outlook for world economic growth and push up its expectations for U.S. inflation, highlighting rising concerns about the erratic nature of U.S.
economic and trade policies, while sharply complicating the task ahead for the Federal Reserve. “The new U.S. administration has started a global trade war that will reduce U.S.
and world growth, push up U.S. inflation and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts," Fitch said in its latest update on the economic outlook. The ratings agency cut its U.S.
2025 growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1%, a level well down from growth rates of closer to 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024. It also lowered its U.S. growth forecast for 2026 to 1.5% from 1.7%.
Fiscal easing in China and Germany will cushion the impact of higher U.S. import tariffs, but growth in the eurozone this year will still be slower, while Mexico and Canada will experience technical recessions given the scale of their U.S. trade exposures, it added.
World growth is set to slow to 2.3% in 2025, well below trend and down from 2.9% in 2024, Fitch said. World growth will remain weak at 2.2% in 2026. The downgrades by Fitch follow a similar moves by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development this week, with a number of private-sector forecasts also moving in the same direction.
Fears of a recession in the U.S. have grown sharply in the last month with the Trump administration ramping up tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, while extending tariffs to imports of steel and aluminum. The erratic nature of the policy has roiled financial markets, with shares in a steep retreat.
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