Focus on public capex going to be paramount in coming years: Aurodeep Nandi

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

«The daily data that we are tracking is showing that vegetable prices is probably going to be as much if not higher than what we have observed in June. The other aspect is also that telecom tariffs were increased by around 20% or so in end of June and so the impact of that is likely to be visible in the July print,» says Aurodeep Nandi, India Economist, Nomura.

The inflation reading though on a bit on expected lines came in above the 5% mark. Thanks to perhaps what is happening in the veggies side because of erratic monsoon. But do you expect it to remain sticky for some time? It appears even RBI is readying the street that inflation is sticky, rates could remain higher for longer.
Aurodeep Nandi: Well, there are three things really to watch out for as far as July is concerned. One is that we have this massive-massive favourable base effect that kicks in. So, last year, June was 4.9%, that spiked to 7.4% in July. So, simultaneously, the July number coming up will be impacted by a favourable base. But that is going to mask a lot of the upside pressures that are there. One, as you mentioned, vegetable prices. These are typically the months when vegetable prices go up quite a lot.

And in fact, the daily data that we are tracking is showing that vegetable prices is probably going to be as much if not higher than what we have observed in June. The other aspect is also that telecom tariffs were increased by around 20% or so in end of June and so the impact of that is likely to be visible in the July print.

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