Further Bitcoin Volatility Ahead? Here’s What Options Markets Say About the BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin looks set to finish Wednesday’s session broadly unchanged in the mid-$24,000, handing market participants some much-needed time to catch their breath after a hectic seven days of price action. This time last week, Bitcoin had just dropped back under $22,000 for the first time in over three weeks, weighed alongside downside in US stocks amid concerns about Fed tightening.
A string of high-profile US bank collapses (Silvergate, SVB and then Signature Bank) would trigger further risk-off flows, driving the BTC price as low as the $19,500s by Friday, where Bitcoin tested its 200DMA and Realized Price for the first time in nearly two months.
However, a proactive response from US authorities to backstop deposits and launch a new bank liquidity program (which helped USDC, a key part of the crypto market’s plumbing, recover back to its $1 peg) helped Bitcoin end last week on a strong footing.
Expectations that the risk of a banking crisis would deter the Fed from engaging in substantial further rate hikes, as well as narratives around cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin being a safe haven against trouble in the traditional financial system then helped propel Bitcoin as high as the mid-$26,500s by Tuesday.
That was Bitcoin’s highest level since last June and, at its peak this week, marked gains of over 35% versus last week’s sub-$20,000 lows. Bitcoin’s wild swing from two-month lows to nine-month highs in a matter of days has got traders betting that more volatility is likely now incoming. At least, that’s according to Bitcoin options markets. Let's take a deeper look.
Over the course of the last week, Deribit’s Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) has jumped from around 50 (which is not far above historic lows) to nearly hit two-month
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