
FY26 is going to be significantly better from an earnings perspective vis-a-vis FY25: Rupen Rajguru
Rupen Rajguru, MD, Senior Advisor, Julius Baer, says we are seeing a classic bottoming of the market and recovery will be slow, and not as significant and fast as we have seen in the previous cycle. But probably the market looks into the rate of change and at the margin, FY26 is going to be significantly better from an earnings perspective vis-a-vis FY25.
What is your take on the overall market sentiment because in 2025 there has been a change in the narrative on how you look at the emerging markets, especially India. March has been quite a volatile month for us though we are cheering the recovery from the lowest level but the harsh reality is that among the SMIDs, there are pockets where we might not see the stocks recovering back to those 2024 highs. Is it the time to deploy more or rather be selective?
Rupen Rajguru: Purely from a market perspective, in the very short to near terms, sentiment and liquidity determines the market momentum and both of these change very fast. Probably on March 4th, we were the worst as far as the sentiment and liquidity was concerned. So, while liquidity has not changed, but definitely in the last two weeks or so, sentiment has changed. And why has the sentiment changed?
One of the key things which was ailing emerging markets and India in particular was the strong dollar. In the last two-three weeks, it is very clear the way the US and President Trump is looking into that, the dollar is something that is going to be weakening and which is what we are witnessing and it has led to
