Gen AI may not lead to job losses but can shift demand curve, says S&P global chief
AI) tools may not necessarily lead to job losses but shift the demand curve in the near term, said Adam Kansler, president, S&P Global Market Intelligence.
«Each year for the last decade, we've thought that technological advance would mean we needed 10% less people or 20% less people. Today, we have probably 40% more people working in those functions than we did,» Kansler told ET in an interview.
He said productivity gains could result in a shift in demand and that there is a long way to go before the net effect of the disruptive and highly valuable technology is understood. According to him, new technologies and startups and a world where outcomes could become more predictable could also lead to reversal of some caution by venture capital investors and redeployment of capital in 2024.
However, he highlighted that in terms of macro fundamentals, a reversion to old times would have to wait.
«I believe you'll need to wait a year to understand what the new normal is. I think the trends show that we are migrating back to what we saw in the previous decades. Will we return to the very low inflation rates and low-interest rate environments we saw four or five years ago? Probably not for some time,» Kansler said.
While the global economy is preparing for a soft landing in 2024, inflation and geopolitcal risks could threaten a path to recovery, he said.
Soft landing refers to a slowdown in economic growth without lapsing into a recession.
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