Generic versions of weight-loss drugs are a bulky opportunity for Chinese and Indian drugmakers

The simultaneous patent expiry of Ozempic’s active ingredient in China and India on Friday was a watershed moment. Until now, these weight-loss drugs have been available largely to people with means. The launch of affordable generic versions will be a levelling force in healthcare, with global consequences.That’s because the world’s two most-populous countries aren’t just consumers.

They also have pharmaceutical firms that are capable of exploiting this moment to reshape the market for metabolic therapies, affecting the earnings of incumbents Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. It would be driven by demand from large populations suffering from chronic ailments like obesity and diabetes that can be treated with these medicines that mimic the effect of the natural hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), which regulates appetite and blood sugar. Public health will benefit most.

According to the Lancet, China had 402 million people living with obesity five years ago. That number will grow 56% by 2050 to nearly half the population. India had 180 million individuals with the disease in 2021, with the figure expected to more than double to 450 million in about 25 years.

Obesity is known to increase the risks of diabetes, coronary artery disease, hypertension, stroke and other conditions.While Novo Nordisk has slashed the price of Wegovy (which uses semaglutide, the same ingredient in Ozempic), in China and India in anticipation of the patent loss, its offerings are still too expensive for most people. In China, where weight-loss drugs fall outside insurance coverage, price will be the decisive factor in whether millions begin medical treatment. Many diabetes patients are managing their condition with less effective older medications.