Global economy's glide to 'soft landing' gets bumpy as bond yields jump

investing.com:

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Rocketing U.S. government bond yields that have led to a global jump in borrowing costs are raising new risks for economic policymakers hoping to lower inflation without triggering a major crisis.

The world's finance officials, who will gather in Morocco next week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, may disagree over the exact drivers of a global bond rout that now appears to reflect more than guessing how far central bankers will raise interest rates.

The cause — whether high government deficits, China's suddenly turgid economy, or political dysfunction in the U.S. Congress — may be less important, though, than the implications for a world financial system that had seemed headed for a «soft landing» from the post-pandemic breakout of inflation.

Central banks around the world approved rapid-fire interest rate increases in response to rising prices, and officials throughout the policy tightening welcomed the largely smooth adjustment in global financial conditions as a testament to better monetary and fiscal management across many countries.

But after what was deemed «a summer of resilience,» Goldman Sachs economists said «cracks» are appearing as emerging market sovereign bonds come under pressure on the heels of rising yields on U.S. Treasuries, the world's risk-free benchmark that draws money from other investments as interest rates rise.

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. While it was routinely above that level through the first years of this century, analysts say the speed of its rise is noteworthy, particularly as it occurred even as the Federal Reserve and other central