Global leadership: Trump is making China look like the more reliable candidate

For at least a decade, developing countries across Asia and Africa have worried about growing dependent on the People’s Republic of China. They’re concerned about debt traps, coercive policies and hidden costs that might push their economies toward crisis.Crisis has come, and that logic has been turned on its head. After six weeks of the US and Israel’s war on Iran and its ensuing counter-attacks, it is the countries that bet on Chinese supply chains that are faring better than the ones that had trusted Pax Americana.

Consider Pakistan. By now it should have been in the middle of yet another economic and social implosion. It has always been vulnerable to energy price shocks, given that it imports almost all of its energy, much of it through the Strait of Hormuz.

The country has $130 billion in external debt and a persistent current account deficit and so the slightest nudge should have tipped it over into a familiar spiral: emergency requests to the International Monetary Fund, 18-hour power blackouts, unrest on the streets.None of that is visible. There are signs of stress, certainly. Islamabad has hiked fuel prices and is reportedly planning to shut off electricity for two to three hours each day.

A sustained shortage of liquid natural gas will make it hard to keep power plants running. But, compared to the situation just a few years ago—when, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the economy had a full-scale meltdown—it’s showing remarkable resilience.What’s the difference? Chinese-made solar panels. Pakistanis have gleefully transitioned to solar power, importing about 17 gigawatts a year of photovoltaics since 2024.