India, now the world's most populous nation as of 2023, is set to achieve a real GDP growth of around 6% by the end of the year. This marks the third consecutive year of impressive growth among major economies.
This growth is attributed to several key factors, including a favorable domestic sentiment in the lead-up to an election year, the potential rise in crude oil prices, anticipated improvements in commodity demand, a weakening US dollar, and decreasing interest rates. All of these factors contribute to a climate of both excitement and volatility in the financial markets.
We firmly believe that the Indian equity markets will continue to thrive and that we are entering a pivotal decade for India's economic development.
This is why we're witnessing a surge in activity among smaller Indian companies and private equity players. India is well on its way to becoming one of the leading wealth-generating nations globally.
It's essential to consider the broader context of emerging markets alongside India's growth story.
While the Indian indices have been experiencing strong gains, it's important not to overlook the fact that many Emerging Market indices remain in a bear market phase, significantly below their peak levels reached around February 8, 2021. Contrary to expectations, China, a dominant force in these indices, has not yet managed to lift emerging markets from their economic challenges following the withdrawal of strict COVID-19 containment policies.
Recent economic data paints a concerning picture, revealing high unemployment rates of nearly 40% and widespread weak demand for durable goods and services.
However, there are potential turning points on the horizon. The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) is anticipated to