Global stock indexes forecast to rise modestly in 2024
highs, while a slim majority of stock market experts polled by Reuters expected their markets to touch new peaks within the next six months.
Much will depend on interest rate expectations now central banks are mostly done with a season of aggressive rate rises since the COVID pandemic to dampen a burst of inflation still not completely under control.
Traders and analysts mostly assume the U.S. Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates by the middle of next year, an outcome that is far from certain and does not clearly align with policy statements from top central bankers.
Those rate cut expectations are partly behind the views of a slim majority of survey respondents, 46 of 82, who said most key indexes would reclaim record highs by then.
However, only a handful of the 15 top stock indexes were predicted to trade at record peaks by end-2024, based on a wider Nov. 9-22 poll of more than 120 stock market experts.
«After two straight quarters recommending cash over stocks and bonds, we now expect equities to eke out high single-digit returns in 2024 and outperform core fixed income,» noted Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays.
«Yes, we expect the economy to grow more slowly next year, in both real and nominal terms...But the downside risks to the world economy have diminished greatly.
We think stocks will benefit from a fairly benign bottom to this business cycle.»
A strong majority of respondents, 72 of 85, expected corporate earnings in their local market to increase over the coming six months. The remaining 13 said they would decrease.
Despite high interest rates, cooling global inflation, and with it, economic activity, only a slim majority of respondents, 44 of 80, said value stocks
