Global worker migration patterns will inevitably shift
The global labour market is in the midst of a gradual but significant transformation. Driven by a dramatic collapse in birth rates, impeded globalization, changes in the capital intensity of growth, a preference shift towards fewer work hours, initial use cases of artificial intelligence (AI) and societal angst over immigration, labour market dislocations have already begun and are only about to go further out-of-whack with time. The manifestations and initial responses are different, country by country, but the meta phenomenon is a major upheaval in labour markets that will necessitate responses.
First, consider birth rates. These have been declining and are now plunging in the developed world. Birth rates for Portugal, Greece and Italy are now at 1.4 (number of births per woman) or below.
They are even lower for Korea and Hong Kong, at 0.8 and China at 1.2 respectively. In the next three decades to 2050, a dozen different regions of the world will experience vastly different growth rates in their populations. Consequently, the regional distribution of people in 2050 will differ significantly from that of today.
While headcounts in much of the world have peaked or are in the process of peaking, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see its population double by 2050. More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 is expected to be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. Under current projections, India’s headcount is expected to peak around 2050, but there are early indications that it may peak well before then.
Read more on livemint.com
