

Godrej Consumer needs to check many boxes for earnings revival
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. After a tepid FY24 and FY25, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) is on the cusp of a recovery, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. High single-digit consolidated revenue growth is expected in FY26, with momentum improving to double digits in FY27.
In FY25, India volumes rose 5% year-on-year even as consolidated revenue increased only 2%. Earnings, too, are forecast to strengthen, with earnings per share projected to grow 22.6% and 19.9% in FY26 and FY27, showed Bloomberg data. Here, many factors need to fall into place.
Volume growth outside soaps—already healthy in haircare and household insecticides—must begin to materially lift consolidated growth. Then, pricing pressure in soaps needs to ease as industry competition rationalizes. Third, international operations, particularly in Indonesia, must improve so that they don’t drag down overall earnings.
GCPL’s revenue from Indonesia was around 14% in FY25. However, due to heightened competition, the management is expecting a sales decline in FY26; in FY27, it is expecting mid-single-digit growth, driven by volumes. Margin recovery remains a crucial swing factor.
The management is confident that the India (standalone) business Ebitda margin can revive to the lower end of the 24-26% normative range in the second half of FY26 from around 21.6% and 21.7% in Q1FY26 and Q2FY26, respectively. This would be aided by better sales leverage, cost-efficiency measures, and near-term stability in palm oil prices. These should offer some near-term relief from input-cost pressure, with margin recovery expected to be gradual rather than sharp, as the Ebitda margin is projected to inch up instead of snapping back to earlier peaks of 27-30%.
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